快速公交（BRT）线路布局优化研究

为探讨现有公共交通线网结构下BRT线路布设优化问题,对快速公交线路布设的内部条件和外部条件进行了分析;在此基础上依据快速公交的发展特点,以乘客总出行时耗最小和车公里成本投入最小为目标,建立了快速公交布局优化的模型,并且给出了优化目标和相应约束条件的函数表达式。通过事例分析对BRT线路布设优化算法进行说明,从而得知优化模型具有较高的应用价值。     

深水刚性跨接管安装过程中关键因素分析

结合中国南海1500m水深海况,使用非线性时域分析软件Orcaflex建立“M”型深水刚性跨接管有限元模型。分析跨接管在波浪及海流作用下,三种典型安装工况：提升工况,通过飞溅区工况以及着陆工况中,不同浪向和绞车下放速度对跨接管强度的影响。并根据API RP 2RD规范校核不同安装工况中的牵引力和结构应力响应是否满足要求。结果表明：提升过程中,绞车需要控制适宜的提升速度以避免发生支撑框架结构碰撞;通过飞溅区过程中, 45°浪向角时跨接管的应力响应最小,为理想施工浪向角;着陆过程中,绞车牵引力达到最大值,数值仿真可以预报安装施工船所需的基本起重能力。分析结果对南海深水跨接管安装具有一定参考意义。     

舰载机作战任务要求到保障要求转换研究

定义任务周期内舰载机装备保障的相关参数,分析舰载机作战单元任务要求到保障要求相关参数之间的约束关系,建立作战任务到保障要求的转换模型。通过最小叉熵原理构造了指数型的舰载机机群恢复度函数M(t),计算舰载机平均保障准备时间,对于进一步的保障任务优化和调度具有重要意义。     

Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data: A study at a Dutch railway station

Train dwell time is one of the most unpredictable components of railway operations, mainly because of the varying volumes of alighting and boarding passengers. However, for reliable estimations of train running times and route conflicts on main lines, it is necessary to obtain accurate estimations of dwell times at the intermediate stops on the main line, the so‐called short stops. This is a great challenge for a more reliable, efficient and robust train operation. Previous research has shown that the dwell time is highly dependent on the number of boarding and alighting passengers. However, these numbers are usually not available in real time. This paper discusses the possibility of a dwell time estimation model at short stops without passenger demand information by means of a statistical analysis of track occupation data from the Netherlands. The analysis showed that the dwell times are best estimated for peak and off‐peak hours separately. The peak‐hour dwell times are estimated using a linear regression model of train length, dwell times at previous stops and dwell times of the preceding trains. The off‐peak‐hour dwell times are estimated using a non‐parametric regression model, in particular, the k‐nearest neighbor model. There are two major advantages of the proposed estimation models. First, the models do not need passenger flow data, which is usually impossible to obtain in real time in practice. Second, detailed parameters of rolling stock configuration and platform layout are not required, which makes the model more generic and eases implementation. A case study at Dutch railway stations shows that the estimation accuracy is 85.8%–88.5% during peak hours and 80.1% during off‐peak hours, which is relatively high. We conclude that the estimation of dwell times at short stop stations without passenger data is possible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conflict‐free time‐based trajectory planning for aircraft taxi automation with refined taxiway modeling

To mitigate airport congestion caused by increasing air traffic demand, the trajectory‐based surface operations concept has been proposed to improve surface movement efficiency while maintaining safety. It utilizes decision support tools to provide optimized time‐based trajectories for each aircraft and uses automation systems to guide surface movements and monitor their conformance with assigned trajectories. Whether the time‐based trajectories can be effectively followed so that the expected benefits can be guaranteed depends firstly on whether these trajectories are realistic. So, this paper first deals with the modeling biases of the network model typically used for taxi trajectory planning via refined taxiway modeling. Then it presents a zone control‐based dynamic routing and timing algorithm upon the refined taxiway model to find the shortest time taxi route and timings for an aircraft. Finally, the presented algorithm is integrated with a sequential planning framework to continuously decide taxi routes and timings. Experimental results demonstrate that the solution time for an aircraft can be steadily around a few milliseconds with timely cleaning of expired time windows, showing potential for real‐time decision support applications. The results also show the advantages of the proposed methodology over existing approaches. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Freeway path travel time prediction based on heterogeneous traffic data through nonparametric model

Providing reliable travel time prediction is very much needed for commuters for their upcoming trips to reduce travel time and relieve traffic congestion. This article proposes an integrated model for path and multi-step-ahead travel time prediction on freeways using both historical and real-time heterogeneous traffic and weather data. The model's performance is investigated in a case study under various traffic scenarios. Results indicate that the proposed model provides satisfactory prediction results in various performance tests. For practical purposes, general guidelines for selecting the model's parameter sets as well as the efficient size of historical data are also presented.     

50000 DWT半潜船压载系统设计

压载系统是半潜船的关键性系统,设计需要满足半潜船潜装、滚装和吊装等多种装卸货方式的要求。为此以中远航运50 000 DWT半潜船为例,介绍半潜船压载系统的设计要点。包括半潜船上浮时间的确定、半潜船常用排/压载方式的选择、大型排/压载设备的介绍、压载系统的设计和优化以及压载系统满足BWM公约D-2规则要求的研究等。     

软土地基围堤外侧桩基础施工时机*

在软土地基上修筑港口工程时,外侧栈桥桩基础的施工时机和工程安全直接受到围堤填筑加载过程的制约和影响。依托某一级渔港工程,通过围堤加载过程中软土地基侧向变形分析及深层水平位移跟踪监测数据的多元回归拟合,分析预测了地基水平位移随围堤加载过程的变化规律和发展趋势,在此基础上通过ANSYS三维建模分析围堤加载过程中灌注桩的内力及变形,最终确定了外侧灌注桩基础的施工时机。研究表明：该软土地基在加载过程中的侧向变形符合指数函数变化规律;围堤加载而导致软土地基产生的侧向变形对外侧灌注桩位移的影响作用比对其自身内力影响要大;当地基土体上部产生最大水平位移150 mm时,灌注桩混凝土的屈服应力安全度仍较大,据此可提出外侧栈桥灌注桩基础的施工时机,该方法可供类似工程设计与施工借鉴。     

南方某桥坍塌事故的动力推断分析

该文以南方某桥的坍塌事故为例,对事故原因进行了推断性分析。利用有限元时程分析的手段,对车辆的行驶速度与桥梁的相互作用的关系进行了分析研究,得到的结论可供类似工程参考。     

具三个年龄阶段的自食单种群系统的定性分析

讨论了两个具有三个年龄阶段的自食单种群模型,其中成年种群死亡率遵循logistic型.对于自治模型,得到了正平衡点全局渐进稳定的充分条件;在时滞模型中,得到了在一定条件下时滞将会改变系统正平衡点的稳定性,推广了已有结论.